Diplomado en modelación, simulación y evaluación de proyectos de inversión en condiciones de certeza, riesgo e incertidumbre

Abstract

The investment project for solar emergí investment, according to the parameters explained by experts to build a deterministic model of cash flow, has carried out a financial evaluation and risk analysis to establish its economic viability and define risk variables. The projected cash flow for a 10-year horizon is discounted at a rate that considers the opportunity cost of the project, this is 13%. In the financial evaluation, indicators such as the net present value (NPV), the internal rate of return (IRR), the cost benefit ratio (R B / C), among others, are considered. Since the financial analysis does not include uncertainty, a risk analysis was carried out that evaluated three methods: tornado sensitivity analysis, which identifies the most critical variables that can influence the results of the project by disturbing the input variables in a range defined one at a time; Scenario analysis, where when making simultaneous changes in the values of the input variables in certain units given predefined scenarios (optimistic, more likely and pessimistic), calculate the values of the result variables which assigning quantified variables an expected value of the result ; Monte Carlo simulation, according to assumptions defined for the input variables through probability distributions, generates multiple simultaneous scenarios recording its impact on the outcome variables.